TDY
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated
$626.59
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 4.7% below fair value
You pay
$626.59
Bear
$406.18
Fair
$657.40
Bull
$934.92
Bear
$406.18
-35.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$657.40
+4.9%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$934.92
+49.2%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
29.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.0%
vs 14.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $651.00 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $657.40 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions