TDY
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated
$608.27
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.0% below fair value
You pay
$608.27
Bear
$428.02
Fair
$691.36
Bull
$982.27
Bear
$428.02
-29.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$691.36
+13.7%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$982.27
+61.5%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
27.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.1%
vs 14.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$697.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
1%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $691.36 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions