TDS Telephone and Data Systems, Inc.
$37.83
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 2703.5% above fair value

You pay $37.83
Bear $1.08
Fair $1.35
Bull $1.62
Bear $1.08 -97.1% $0.09 × 12x P/E
Fair $1.35 -96.4% $0.09 × 15x P/E
Bull $1.62 -95.7% $0.09 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.09$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 420.5x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (7 analysts) $27.67
Divergence from AlphaVal 95%

Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.09, the base-case value is $1.35 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $27.67 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 95% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples