TCOM
Trip.com Group Limited
$38.09
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 65.5% below fair value
You pay
$38.09
Bear
$72.03
Fair
$110.54
Bull
$154.76
Bear
$72.03
+89.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$110.54
+190.2%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$154.76
+306.3%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
9.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-1.4%
vs 16.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (44 analysts)
$56.64
Divergence from AlphaVal
95%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $110.54 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $56.64 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 95% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1493 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions