TCOM
Trip.com Group Limited
$46.47
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 52.4% below fair value
You pay
$46.47
Bear
$63.79
Fair
$97.58
Bull
$136.40
Bear
$63.79
+37.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$97.58
+110.0%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$136.40
+193.5%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
12.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $75.00 from 43 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $97.58 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $75.00 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 43% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1479 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions