TCNNF
Trulieve Cannabis Corp.
$7.50
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 60.1% below fair value
You pay
$7.50
Bear
$18.79
Fair
$18.79
Bull
$20.22
Bear
$18.79
+150.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$18.79
+150.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$20.22
+169.7%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
8.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.21 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.79 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $47.21 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions