TCNNF
Trulieve Cannabis Corp.
$8.78
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 52.6% below fair value
You pay
$8.78
Bear
$18.51
Fair
$18.51
Bull
$19.88
Bear
$18.51
+110.8%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$18.51
+110.8%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$19.88
+126.4%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
9.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-0.2%
vs 3.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.21 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.51 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $47.21 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions