TCNNF
Trulieve Cannabis Corp.
$12.25
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 90.6% above fair value
You pay
$12.25
Bear
$6.43
Fair
$6.43
Bull
$6.95
Bear
$6.43
-47.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$6.43
-47.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$6.95
-43.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
19.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.6%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$47.21
Divergence from AlphaVal
86%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $6.43 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $47.21 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 86% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions