TCMD
Tactile Systems Technology, Inc.
$23.39
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 90.2% above fair value
You pay
$23.39
Bear
$9.84
Fair
$12.30
Bull
$14.76
Bear
$9.84
-57.9%
$0.82 × 12x P/E
Fair
$12.30
-47.4%
$0.82 × 15x P/E
Bull
$14.76
-36.9%
$0.82 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
0.82$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
28.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$35.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
65%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.82, the base-case value is $12.30 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $35.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples