TCMD
Tactile Systems Technology, Inc.
$27.74
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 29.3% above fair value
You pay
$27.74
Bear
$17.16
Fair
$21.45
Bull
$25.74
Bear
$17.16
-38.1%
$0.93 × 14x P/E
Fair
$21.45
-22.7%
$0.93 × 18x P/E
Bull
$25.74
-7.2%
$0.93 × 22x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.67 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.45 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $40.67 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples