TCBX
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.
$41.50
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 41.8% below fair value
You pay
$41.50
Bear
$45.48
Fair
$71.26
Bull
$86.74
Bear
$45.48
+9.6%
ROTCE 9.7% → 1.48x TBV
Fair
$71.26
+71.7%
ROTCE 12.9% → 2.32x TBV
Bull
$86.74
+109.0%
ROTCE 14.9% → 2.82x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
12.9%
7.9%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (12.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.35x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$49.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
45%
Summary
With ROTCE of 12.9% vs. 7.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.32x on $30.76 tangible book, implying $71.26 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $49.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 45% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly