TCBX
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.
$42.19
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 44.6% below fair value
You pay
$42.19
Bear
$48.59
Fair
$76.14
Bull
$92.68
Bear
$48.59
+15.2%
ROTCE 9.7% → 1.47x TBV
Fair
$76.14
+80.5%
ROTCE 12.9% → 2.31x TBV
Bull
$92.68
+119.7%
ROTCE 14.9% → 2.81x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (12.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.16x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $45.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $76.14 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $45.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 87% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly