TCBX
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.
$38.08
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 49.0% below fair value
You pay
$38.08
Bear
$47.64
Fair
$74.66
Bull
$90.87
Bear
$47.64
+25.1%
ROTCE 9.7% → 1.44x TBV
Fair
$74.66
+96.1%
ROTCE 12.9% → 2.26x TBV
Bull
$90.87
+138.6%
ROTCE 14.9% → 2.75x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (12.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.05x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $45.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $74.66 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $45.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 82% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly