TCBK
TriCo Bancshares
$50.68
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.8% below fair value
You pay
$50.68
Bear
$40.96
Fair
$65.66
Bull
$80.47
Bear
$40.96
-19.2%
ROTCE 8.9% → 1.33x TBV
Fair
$65.66
+29.6%
ROTCE 11.9% → 2.14x TBV
Bull
$80.47
+58.8%
ROTCE 13.7% → 2.62x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $57.33 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $65.66 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $1071.01 (1481% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly