TCBK
TriCo Bancshares
$52.04
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 25.0% below fair value
You pay
$52.04
Bear
$43.27
Fair
$69.36
Bull
$85.01
Bear
$43.27
-16.9%
ROTCE 8.9% → 1.36x TBV
Fair
$69.36
+33.3%
ROTCE 11.9% → 2.18x TBV
Bull
$85.01
+63.4%
ROTCE 13.7% → 2.67x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
11.9%
7.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.63x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$60.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
14%
Summary
With ROTCE of 11.9% vs. 7.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.18x on $31.88 tangible book, implying $69.36 per share. DDM cross-check: $136.57.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $136.57 (97% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly