TCBK
TriCo Bancshares
$59.49
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.8% below fair value
You pay
$59.49
Bear
$41.63
Fair
$66.73
Bull
$81.78
Bear
$41.63
-30.0%
ROTCE 8.9% → 1.34x TBV
Fair
$66.73
+12.2%
ROTCE 11.9% → 2.15x TBV
Bull
$81.78
+37.5%
ROTCE 13.7% → 2.64x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.88x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $60.67 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $66.73 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $1322.48 (1838% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly