TBPH
Theravance Biopharma Inc
$16.93
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 65.6% below fair value
You pay
$16.93
Bear
$49.20
Fair
$49.20
Bull
$52.27
Bear
$49.20
+190.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$49.20
+190.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$52.27
+208.7%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
2.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-20.8%
vs 3.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.50 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $49.20 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $15.50 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 290% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions