TBPH
Theravance Biopharma, Inc.
$16.37
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 79.5% below fair value
You pay
$16.37
Bear
$60.57
Fair
$79.76
Bull
$98.50
Bear
$60.57
+270.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$79.76
+387.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$98.50
+501.7%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
2.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $27.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $79.76 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $27.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 261% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions