TBPH
Theravance Biopharma Inc
$17.10
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 71.9% below fair value
You pay
$17.10
Bear
$60.93
Fair
$60.93
Bull
$64.73
Bear
$60.93
+256.3%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$60.93
+256.3%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$64.73
+278.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
2.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-20.7%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$15.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
293%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $60.93 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $15.50 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 293% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions