TBPH
Theravance Biopharma Inc
$17.03
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 72.0% below fair value
You pay
$17.03
Bear
$60.83
Fair
$60.83
Bull
$64.62
Bear
$60.83
+257.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$60.83
+257.2%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$64.62
+279.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
2.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-20.7%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$17.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
258%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $60.83 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $17.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 258% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions