TBCH
Turtle Beach Corporation
$15.53
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 46.3% below fair value
You pay
$15.53
Bear
$23.03
Fair
$28.91
Bull
$34.22
Bear
$23.03
+48.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$28.91
+86.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$34.22
+120.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
9.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-0.6%
vs 7.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$16.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
75%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.91 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 39% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $16.50 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 75% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions