TBCH
Turtle Beach Corporation
$12.48
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 52.2% below fair value
You pay
$12.48
Bear
$20.78
Fair
$26.08
Bull
$30.88
Bear
$20.78
+66.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$26.08
+109.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$30.88
+147.4%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
8.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-1.9%
vs 7.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$15.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
74%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $26.08 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 39% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 74% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions