TBCH
Turtle Beach Corporation
$12.39
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 42.6% below fair value
You pay
$12.39
Bear
$17.14
Fair
$21.60
Bull
$25.65
Bear
$17.14
+38.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$21.60
+74.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$25.65
+107.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
9.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $17.50 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.60 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $17.50 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 29% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions