TBBK
The Bancorp, Inc.
$55.32
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 24.2% below fair value
You pay
$55.32
Bear
$51.12
Fair
$73.02
Bull
$94.93
Bear
$51.12
-7.6%
ROTCE 20.0% → 2.21x TBV
Fair
$73.02
+32.0%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$94.93
+71.6%
ROTCE 30.0% → 3.59x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (33.1%) vs. cost of equity (11.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
3.34x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $58.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $73.02 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $58.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly