TBBB
BBB Foods Inc.
$41.02
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 12.4% above fair value
You pay
$41.02
Bear
$17.62
Fair
$36.48
Bull
$60.17
Bear
$17.62
-57.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$36.48
-11.1%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$60.17
+46.7%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
53.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.1%
vs 20.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $45.20 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.48 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from MXN into USD using USDMXN at 0.0575 USD per MXN.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions