TBBB
BBB Foods Inc.
$56.30
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 0.3% below fair value
You pay
$56.30
Bear
$28.84
Fair
$56.48
Bull
$91.21
Bear
$28.84
-48.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$56.48
+0.3%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$91.21
+62.0%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
45.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
20.0%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$56.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
0%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $56.48 per share.
Warnings
Financial statements were converted from MXN into USD using USDMXN at 0.0545 USD per MXN.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions