TALK Talkspace, Inc.
$5.20
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 187.3% above fair value

You pay $5.20
Bear $1.45
Fair $1.81
Bull $2.17
Bear $1.45 -72.2% $0.04 × 18x P/E
Fair $1.81 -65.2% $0.04 × 22x P/E
Bull $2.17 -58.2% $0.04 × 27x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 123.4x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $5.25 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $1.81 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $5.25 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples