T AT&T Inc.
$25.66
Stable Earnings Power 65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 44.4% below fair value

You pay $25.66
Bear $36.92
Fair $46.16
Bull $55.39
Bear $36.92 +43.9% $3.04 × 12x P/E
Fair $46.16 +79.8% $3.04 × 15x P/E
Bull $55.39 +115.8% $3.04 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.2x
3.04$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.4x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (62 analysts) $26.69
Divergence from AlphaVal 73%

Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.04, the base-case value is $46.16 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $26.69 (from 62 analysts). Our estimate is 73% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples