T AT&T Inc.
$22.76
Stable Earnings Power 65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 44.4% below fair value

You pay $22.76
Bear $32.74
Fair $40.92
Bull $49.10
Bear $32.74 +43.8% $3.11 × 12x P/E
Fair $40.92 +79.8% $3.11 × 15x P/E
Bull $49.10 +115.7% $3.11 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.3x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.35 from 62 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $40.92 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $29.35 (from 62 analysts). Our estimate is 61% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples