SYY
Sysco Corporation
$78.20
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 11.7% above fair value
You pay
$78.20
Bear
$57.67
Fair
$70.03
Bull
$82.39
Bear
$57.67
-26.2%
$3.66 × 16x P/E
Fair
$70.03
-10.4%
$3.66 × 19x P/E
Bull
$82.39
+5.4%
$3.66 × 23x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
19.1x
3.66$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$85.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
18%
Summary
Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.66, the base-case value is $70.03 per share. DDM cross-check: $41.20.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $41.20 (below our primary estimate by 41%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples