SYY
Sysco Corporation
$76.29
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.6% above fair value
You pay
$76.29
Bear
$62.47
Fair
$75.87
Bull
$89.26
Bear
$62.47
-18.1%
$3.90 × 15x P/E
Fair
$75.87
-0.6%
$3.90 × 18x P/E
Bull
$89.26
+17.0%
$3.90 × 21x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $90.44 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $75.87 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $41.99 (below our primary estimate by 40%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples