SYNA
Synaptics Incorporated
$121.10
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 308.7% above fair value
You pay
$121.10
Bear
$22.22
Fair
$29.63
Bull
$37.04
Bear
$22.22
-81.6%
$1.85 × 12x
Fair
$29.63
-75.5%
$1.85 × 16x
Bull
$37.04
-69.4%
$1.85 × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
1.85$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.85)
Implied Market Multiple
65.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (34 analysts)
$129.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
77%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.85 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $29.63 per share.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Wall Street's average price target is $129.33 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 77% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing