SYK
Stryker Corporation
$294.66
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 13.0% above fair value
You pay
$294.66
Bear
$173.75
Fair
$260.87
Bull
$350.54
Bear
$173.75
-41.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$260.87
-11.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$350.54
+19.0%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
27.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.3%
vs 11.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$365.89
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $260.87 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $365.89 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions