SYK
Stryker Corporation
$311.07
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 9.2% above fair value
You pay
$311.07
Bear
$188.55
Fair
$284.97
Bull
$384.21
Bear
$188.55
-39.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$284.97
-8.4%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$384.21
+23.5%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
32.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.3%
vs 11.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $381.79 from 51 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $284.97 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $381.79 (from 51 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions