SYBT
Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc.
$71.22
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 14.7% below fair value
You pay
$71.22
Bear
$55.83
Fair
$83.48
Bull
$100.08
Bear
$55.83
-21.6%
ROTCE 12.2% → 1.96x TBV
Fair
$83.48
+17.2%
ROTCE 16.3% → 2.93x TBV
Bull
$100.08
+40.5%
ROTCE 18.8% → 3.51x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (16.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.45x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $76.50 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $83.48 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $23.91 (72% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly