SWX
Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.
$89.91
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.2% below fair value
You pay
$89.91
Bear
$85.65
Fair
$97.89
Bull
$110.13
Bear
$85.65
-4.7%
$6.08 × 14x P/E
Fair
$97.89
+8.9%
$6.08 × 16x P/E
Bull
$110.13
+22.5%
$6.08 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $100.33 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $97.89 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $36.14 (below our primary estimate by 63%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples