SWX
Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.
$89.10
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.4% below fair value
You pay
$89.10
Bear
$85.12
Fair
$97.28
Bull
$109.44
Bear
$85.12
-4.5%
$6.08 × 14x P/E
Fair
$97.28
+9.2%
$6.08 × 16x P/E
Bull
$109.44
+22.8%
$6.08 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
6.08$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$102.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
5%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.08, the base-case value is $97.28 per share. DDM cross-check: $36.50.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $36.50 (below our primary estimate by 62%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples