SWKS
Skyworks Solutions, Inc.
$82.22
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 16.2% below fair value
You pay
$82.22
Bear
$73.56
Fair
$98.08
Bull
$122.60
Bear
$73.56
-10.5%
$6.13 × 12x
Fair
$98.08
+19.3%
$6.13 × 16x
Bull
$122.60
+49.1%
$6.13 × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
6.13$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($6.13)
Implied Market Multiple
13.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (60 analysts)
$80.64
Divergence from AlphaVal
22%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $6.13 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $98.08 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 4.5x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 4.5x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing