SW
Smurfit Westrock plc
$41.16
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.5% below fair value
You pay
$41.16
Bear
$34.55
Fair
$51.11
Bull
$66.47
Bear
$34.55
-16.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$51.11
+24.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$66.47
+61.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
16.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.1%
vs 7.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$70.88
Divergence from AlphaVal
28%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $51.11 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $70.88 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions