SW
Smurfit Westrock plc
$44.23
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 27.7% above fair value
You pay
$44.23
Bear
$20.49
Fair
$34.65
Bull
$47.79
Bear
$20.49
-53.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$34.65
-21.7%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$47.79
+8.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
23.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.9%
vs 7.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $54.71 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.65 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $54.71 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions