SW
Smurfit Westrock plc
$45.36
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.2% below fair value
You pay
$45.36
Bear
$34.55
Fair
$51.11
Bull
$66.47
Bear
$34.55
-23.8%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$51.11
+12.7%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$66.47
+46.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
17.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.9%
vs 7.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$71.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $51.11 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $71.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions