SW
Smurfit Westrock Plc
$38.05
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.3% above fair value
You pay
$38.05
Bear
$22.82
Fair
$37.21
Bull
$50.57
Bear
$22.82
-40.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$37.21
-2.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$50.57
+32.9%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
19.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $53.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $37.21 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $53.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions