SVV
Savers Value Village, Inc.
$10.07
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 361.4% above fair value
You pay
$10.07
Bear
$0.05
Fair
$2.18
Bull
$4.16
Bear
$0.05
-99.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$2.18
-78.3%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$4.16
-58.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
31.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.1%
vs 7.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$12.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
82%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $2.18 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 171% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.25 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions