SVV
Savers Value Village, Inc.
$9.77
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 218.7% above fair value
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$3.07
-68.6%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$0.00
-100.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
57.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.9%
vs 7.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.33 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $3.07 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 171% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.33 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions