SUPN
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$41.23
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 32.5% above fair value
You pay
$41.23
Bear
$26.39
Fair
$31.11
Bull
$35.35
Bear
$26.39
-36.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$31.11
-24.5%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$35.35
-14.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
23.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.0%
vs 6.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$57.60
Divergence from AlphaVal
46%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $31.11 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $57.60 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions