SUPN
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$43.53
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 39.5% above fair value
You pay
$43.53
Bear
$26.48
Fair
$31.21
Bull
$35.47
Bear
$26.48
-39.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$31.21
-28.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$35.47
-18.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
24.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.8%
vs 6.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$57.60
Divergence from AlphaVal
46%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $31.21 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $57.60 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions