SUPN
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$48.21
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 30.4% above fair value
You pay
$48.21
Bear
$31.37
Fair
$36.97
Bull
$42.01
Bear
$31.37
-34.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$36.97
-23.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$42.01
-12.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
27.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $60.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.97 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $60.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions