SUPN
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$48.04
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 26.5% above fair value
You pay
$48.04
Bear
$32.21
Fair
$37.97
Bull
$43.15
Bear
$32.21
-32.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$37.97
-21.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$43.15
-10.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
27.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.2%
vs 6.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $65.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $37.97 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $65.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions