SUNB
Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc
$79.09
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 66.3% above fair value
You pay
$79.09
Bear
$38.04
Fair
$47.55
Bull
$57.06
Bear
$38.04
-51.9%
$3.17 × 12x P/E
Fair
$47.55
-39.9%
$3.17 × 15x P/E
Bull
$57.06
-27.9%
$3.17 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.17$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$86.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
45%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.17, the base-case value is $47.55 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $86.83 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples