SU
Suncor Energy Inc.
$78.82
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 24.7% above fair value
You pay
$78.82
Bear
$37.07
Fair
$63.19
Bull
$94.72
Bear
$37.07
-53.0%
FCF $4520M × 12x
Fair
$63.19
-19.8%
FCF $5318M × 16x
Bull
$94.72
+20.2%
FCF $6116M × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
16.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$89.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $63.19 per share. Range: $37.07 (bear) to $94.72 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $89.00 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7117 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential