SU
Suncor Energy Inc.
$67.34
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 13.0% above fair value
You pay
$67.34
Bear
$34.67
Fair
$59.58
Bull
$89.66
Bear
$34.67
-48.5%
FCF $4258M × 12x
Fair
$59.58
-11.5%
FCF $5010M × 16x
Bull
$89.66
+33.1%
FCF $5761M × 20x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $62.00 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $59.58 per share.
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7240 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential