STZ
Constellation Brands, Inc.
$122.64
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 39.2% below fair value
You pay
$122.64
Bear
$172.98
Fair
$201.81
Bull
$230.64
Bear
$172.98
+41.0%
$9.61 × 18x P/E
Fair
$201.81
+64.6%
$9.61 × 21x P/E
Bull
$230.64
+88.1%
$9.61 × 24x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.0x
9.61$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (47 analysts)
$149.71
Divergence from AlphaVal
35%
Summary
Applying a 21x P/E to adjusted EPS of $9.61, the base-case value is $201.81 per share. DDM cross-check: $166.46.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $149.71 (from 47 analysts). Our estimate is 35% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples