STZ
Constellation Brands, Inc.
$149.50
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 28.8% below fair value
You pay
$149.50
Bear
$179.97
Fair
$209.96
Bull
$239.95
Bear
$179.97
+20.4%
$10.70 × 18x P/E
Fair
$209.96
+40.4%
$10.70 × 21x P/E
Bull
$239.95
+60.5%
$10.70 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $175.70 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $209.96 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $175.70 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 28% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples