STZ
Constellation Brands, Inc.
$134.45
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 33.4% below fair value
You pay
$134.45
Bear
$172.98
Fair
$201.81
Bull
$230.64
Bear
$172.98
+28.7%
$9.61 × 18x P/E
Fair
$201.81
+50.1%
$9.61 × 21x P/E
Bull
$230.64
+71.5%
$9.61 × 24x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.0x
9.61$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (46 analysts)
$165.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
22%
Summary
Applying a 21x P/E to adjusted EPS of $9.61, the base-case value is $201.81 per share. DDM cross-check: $181.57.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples