STX
Seagate Technology Holdings plc
$1,015.60
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 194.9% above fair value
You pay
$1,015.60
Bear
$275.47
Fair
$344.33
Bull
$413.20
Bear
$275.47
-72.9%
$6.77 × 15x P/E
Fair
$344.33
-66.1%
$6.77 × 18x P/E
Bull
$413.20
-59.3%
$6.77 × 22x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
150.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $754.64 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $344.33 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $43.74 (below our primary estimate by 65%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $754.64 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 84% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples