STX
Seagate Technology Holdings plc
$832.89
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 299.5% above fair value
You pay
$832.89
Bear
$166.80
Fair
$208.50
Bull
$250.20
Bear
$166.80
-80.0%
$13.90 × 12x P/E
Fair
$208.50
-75.0%
$13.90 × 15x P/E
Bull
$250.20
-70.0%
$13.90 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
13.9$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
59.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$1130.15
Divergence from AlphaVal
82%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $13.90, the base-case value is $208.50 per share. DDM cross-check: $43.49.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $43.49 (below our primary estimate by 79%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $1130.15 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples