STVN
Stevanato Group S.p.A.
$21.03
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 107.1% above fair value
You pay
$21.03
Bear
$8.12
Fair
$10.15
Bull
$12.18
Bear
$8.12
-61.4%
$0.57 × 14x P/E
Fair
$10.15
-51.7%
$0.57 × 18x P/E
Bull
$12.18
-42.1%
$0.57 × 21x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.9x
0.57$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
37.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$32.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
68%
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.57, the base-case value is $10.15 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $32.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1587 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples