STUB
StubHub Holdings, Inc.
$5.96
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 86.0% below fair value
You pay
$5.96
Bear
$19.84
Fair
$42.67
Bull
$70.29
Bear
$19.84
+232.8%
14% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Fair
$42.67
+615.9%
24% rev growth, 28% terminal margin
Bull
$70.29
+1079.4%
31% rev growth, 32% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
24.0%
28.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (24%) × margin expansion to 28%
Terminal Value % of EV
60%
Implied Market Multiple
1.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$10.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
297%
Summary
Projecting 24% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 17% to 28% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $42.67 per share.
Warnings
Gross margin of 81% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.75 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 297% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep