STRA
Strategic Education, Inc.
$81.89
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.1% below fair value
You pay
$81.89
Bear
$75.88
Fair
$92.14
Bull
$108.40
Bear
$75.88
-7.3%
$5.42 × 14x P/E
Fair
$92.14
+12.5%
$5.42 × 17x P/E
Bull
$108.40
+32.4%
$5.42 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
5.42$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$93.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
1%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.42, the base-case value is $92.14 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples