STKL
SunOpta Inc.
$6.50
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 194.1% above fair value
You pay
$6.50
Bear
$1.82
Fair
$2.21
Bull
$2.60
Bear
$1.82
-72.0%
$0.13 × 14x P/E
Fair
$2.21
-66.0%
$0.13 × 17x P/E
Bull
$2.60
-60.0%
$0.13 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
0.13$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
50.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$10.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
78%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.13, the base-case value is $2.21 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $10.25 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples