STKL
SunOpta Inc.
$6.50
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 67.7% above fair value
You pay
$6.50
Bear
$3.19
Fair
$3.88
Bull
$4.56
Bear
$3.19
-50.9%
$0.15 × 14x P/E
Fair
$3.88
-40.4%
$0.15 × 17x P/E
Bull
$4.56
-29.9%
$0.15 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
44.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $8.00 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $3.88 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $8.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 69% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples