STGW
Stagwell Inc.
$8.57
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 69.6% below fair value
You pay
$8.57
Bear
$15.08
Fair
$28.19
Bull
$43.18
Bear
$15.08
+75.9%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$28.19
+228.9%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$43.18
+403.8%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
14.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
4.7%
vs 16.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$8.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
252%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.19 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 186% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $8.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 252% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions