STAA
STAAR Surgical Company
$23.09
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 77.8% above fair value
You pay
$23.09
Bear
$10.39
Fair
$12.99
Bull
$15.59
Bear
$10.39
-55.0%
$0.43 × 12x P/E
Fair
$12.99
-43.8%
$0.43 × 15x P/E
Bull
$15.59
-32.5%
$0.43 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
53.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.60 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $12.99 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $32.60 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples