ST
Sensata Technologies Holding plc
$42.46
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 142.4% above fair value
You pay
$42.46
Bear
$14.02
Fair
$17.52
Bull
$21.02
Bear
$14.02
-67.0%
$1.17 × 12x P/E
Fair
$17.52
-58.7%
$1.17 × 15x P/E
Bull
$21.02
-50.5%
$1.17 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.17$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
36.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$53.63
Divergence from AlphaVal
67%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.17, the base-case value is $17.52 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 456%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 229% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $53.63 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples