SSTI
SoundThinking, Inc.
$8.36
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 986.7% above fair value
You pay
$8.36
Bear
$0.76
Fair
$0.77
Bull
$0.78
Bear
$0.76
-90.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$0.77
-90.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$0.78
-90.7%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
6721.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
95.2%
vs 12.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$8.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
91%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $0.77 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $8.75 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 91% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions