SSTI
SoundThinking, Inc.
$6.78
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 116.6% above fair value
Bear
$3.13
-53.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$3.13
-53.8%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$3.13
-53.8%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
0%
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $10.00 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $3.13 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $10.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 92% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions