SSTI
SoundThinking, Inc.
$5.99
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 661.8% above fair value
You pay
$5.99
Bear
$0.78
Fair
$0.79
Bull
$0.80
Bear
$0.78
-87.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$0.79
-86.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$0.80
-86.7%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
4516.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
88.3%
vs 12.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$9.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
92%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $0.79 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $9.75 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 92% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions