SSTI
SoundThinking, Inc.
$8.59
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 95.1% above fair value
Bear
$4.40
-48.7%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$4.40
-48.7%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$4.40
-48.7%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
0%
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.33 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $4.40 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $15.33 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 95% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions