SSNC
SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc.
$69.51
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 40.0% below fair value
You pay
$69.51
Bear
$84.41
Fair
$115.88
Bull
$146.16
Bear
$84.41
+21.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$115.88
+66.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$146.16
+110.3%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
12.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.6%
vs 9.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $92.40 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $115.88 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $92.40 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 34% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions