SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.
$17.96
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 55.8% below fair value

You pay $17.96
Bear $34.81
Fair $40.61
Bull $46.42
Bear $34.81 +93.8% $2.34 × 18x P/E
Fair $40.61 +126.1% $2.34 × 21x P/E
Bull $46.42 +158.4% $2.34 × 24x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.7x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.78 from 55 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $40.61 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $24.78 (from 55 analysts). Our estimate is 98% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples