SRPT
Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.
$17.96
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 55.8% below fair value
You pay
$17.96
Bear
$34.81
Fair
$40.61
Bull
$46.42
Bear
$34.81
+93.8%
$2.34 × 18x P/E
Fair
$40.61
+126.1%
$2.34 × 21x P/E
Bull
$46.42
+158.4%
$2.34 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.78 from 55 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $40.61 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $24.78 (from 55 analysts). Our estimate is 98% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples