SR
Spire Inc.
$82.55
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.9% above fair value
You pay
$82.55
Bear
$66.93
Fair
$76.49
Bull
$86.05
Bear
$66.93
-18.9%
$4.37 × 14x P/E
Fair
$76.49
-7.3%
$4.37 × 16x P/E
Bull
$86.05
+4.2%
$4.37 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $96.20 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $76.49 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $96.20 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples