SR Spire Inc.
$86.99
Stable Earnings Power 85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 13.7% above fair value

You pay $86.99
Bear $66.93
Fair $76.49
Bull $86.05
Bear $66.93 -23.1% $4.37 × 14x P/E
Fair $76.49 -12.1% $4.37 × 16x P/E
Bull $86.05 -1.1% $4.37 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.9x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $96.20 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $76.49 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $96.20 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples