SR
Spire Inc.
$85.74
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 22.6% above fair value
You pay
$85.74
Bear
$61.18
Fair
$69.92
Bull
$78.66
Bear
$61.18
-28.6%
$4.37 × 14x P/E
Fair
$69.92
-18.5%
$4.37 × 16x P/E
Bull
$78.66
-8.3%
$4.37 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
4.37$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$92.57
Divergence from AlphaVal
24%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.37, the base-case value is $69.92 per share. DDM cross-check: $81.34.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples