SQM
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A.
$80.18
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 5.4% above fair value
You pay
$80.18
Bear
$37.97
Fair
$76.06
Bull
$124.17
Bear
$37.97
-52.6%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$76.06
-5.1%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$124.17
+54.9%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
49.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $78.20 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $76.06 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions