SQM
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A.
$56.97
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 33.9% below fair value
You pay
$56.97
Bear
$45.52
Fair
$86.15
Bull
$135.94
Bear
$45.52
-20.1%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$86.15
+51.2%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$135.94
+138.6%
25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
19.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
29.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.0%
vs 18.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$92.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
7%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $86.15 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions