SQ
Block, Inc.
$83.46
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 27.0% below fair value
You pay
$83.46
Bear
$69.06
Fair
$114.33
Bull
$171.54
Bear
$69.06
-17.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$114.33
+37.0%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$171.54
+105.5%
27% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (21% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
28.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.5%
vs 20.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (75 analysts)
$94.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
22%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 21% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $114.33 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions