SPXC
SPX Technologies, Inc.
$168.58
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 119.8% above fair value
You pay
$168.58
Bear
$59.64
Fair
$76.68
Bull
$93.72
Bear
$59.64
-64.6%
$4.26 × 14x
Fair
$76.68
-54.5%
$4.26 × 18x
Bull
$93.72
-44.4%
$4.26 × 22x
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
4.26$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($4.26)
Implied Market Multiple
39.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$247.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
69%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $4.26 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $76.68 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 25.9x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 25.9x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $247.83 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 69% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing