SPXC
SPX Technologies, Inc.
$207.80
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 80.8% above fair value
You pay
$207.80
Bear
$85.54
Fair
$114.94
Bull
$143.59
Bear
$85.54
-58.8%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$114.94
-44.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$143.59
-30.9%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
47.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $252.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $114.94 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $252.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions