SPOK
Spok Holdings, Inc.
$10.96
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 16.9% above fair value
You pay
$10.96
Bear
$7.50
Fair
$9.38
Bull
$11.25
Bear
$7.50
-31.6%
$0.75 × 10x P/E
Fair
$9.38
-14.5%
$0.75 × 12x P/E
Bull
$11.25
+2.6%
$0.75 × 15x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.6x
Summary
Applying a 12x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.75, the base-case value is $9.38 per share. DDM cross-check: $212.89.
Warnings
The company pays out 167% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $212.89 (above our primary estimate by 2171%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples