SPNS
Sapiens International Corporation N.V.
$43.45
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 17.1% above fair value
You pay
$43.45
Bear
$25.93
Fair
$37.12
Bull
$49.02
Bear
$25.93
-40.3%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$37.12
-14.6%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$49.02
+12.8%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
32.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.4%
vs 13.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$38.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
2%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $37.12 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions