SPHXF
SM Prime Holdings, Inc.
$0.27
Stable Earnings Power
60%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 43.1% below fair value
You pay
$0.27
Bear
$0.38
Fair
$0.47
Bull
$0.56
Bear
$0.38
+40.6%
$0.03 × 14x P/E
Fair
$0.47
+75.8%
$0.03 × 18x P/E
Bull
$0.56
+110.9%
$0.03 × 21x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.6x
0.03$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.0x
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.03, the base-case value is $0.47 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 96% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Financial statements were converted from PHP into USD using USDPHP at 0.0157 USD per PHP.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples