SPHR
Sphere Entertainment Co.
$129.37
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.8% above fair value
You pay
$129.37
Bear
$96.00
Fair
$120.00
Bull
$144.00
Bear
$96.00
-25.8%
$5.14 × 18x P/E
Fair
$120.00
-7.2%
$5.14 × 22x P/E
Bull
$144.00
+11.3%
$5.14 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $137.70 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $120.00 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples