SPGI
S&P Global Inc.
$437.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 33.0% above fair value
You pay
$437.84
Bear
$260.73
Fair
$329.28
Bull
$391.03
Bear
$260.73
-40.5%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$329.28
-24.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$391.03
-10.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
26.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.0%
vs 6.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $537.67 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $329.28 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $537.67 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions