SPGI
S&P Global Inc.
$417.60
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.9% above fair value
You pay
$417.60
Bear
$286.42
Fair
$414.00
Bull
$542.18
Bear
$286.42
-31.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$414.00
-0.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$542.18
+29.8%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
25.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $548.11 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $414.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $548.11 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions