SPGI
S&P Global Inc.
$413.47
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 54.6% above fair value
You pay
$413.47
Bear
$214.04
Fair
$267.49
Bull
$315.30
Bear
$214.04
-48.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$267.49
-35.3%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$315.30
-23.7%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
24.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.7%
vs 6.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$509.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $267.49 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $509.50 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions