SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
$108.37
Distressed or Transitioning
75%
Current EPS × Depressed Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 802640.7% above fair value
You pay
$108.37
Bear
$0.01
Fair
$0.01
Bull
$0.02
Bear
$0.01
-100.0%
EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair
$0.01
-100.0%
Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull
$0.02
-100.0%
Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
60205.6x
Summary
Stock is 52% below 52-week high. Using current EPS at a 8x depressed multiple, base-case value is $0.01. Wide scenario range: $0.01–$0.02.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case