SPB
Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.
$79.86
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.9% below fair value
You pay
$79.86
Bear
$67.73
Fair
$82.25
Bull
$96.76
Bear
$67.73
-15.2%
$4.84 × 14x P/E
Fair
$82.25
+3.0%
$4.84 × 17x P/E
Bull
$96.76
+21.2%
$4.84 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
4.84$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$97.60
Divergence from AlphaVal
16%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.84, the base-case value is $82.25 per share. DDM cross-check: $33.59.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $33.59 (below our primary estimate by 59%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples