SPB
Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.
$89.60
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 31.2% below fair value
You pay
$89.60
Bear
$107.21
Fair
$130.19
Bull
$153.16
Bear
$107.21
+19.7%
$8.51 × 14x P/E
Fair
$130.19
+45.3%
$8.51 × 17x P/E
Bull
$153.16
+70.9%
$8.51 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $87.00 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $130.19 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 120%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $33.59 (below our primary estimate by 77%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $87.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 66% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples