SON
Sonoco Products Company
$48.74
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.4% below fair value
You pay
$48.74
Bear
$47.76
Fair
$59.70
Bull
$71.64
Bear
$47.76
-2.0%
$3.98 × 12x P/E
Fair
$59.70
+22.5%
$3.98 × 15x P/E
Bull
$71.64
+47.0%
$3.98 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.98$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$62.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.98, the base-case value is $59.70 per share. DDM cross-check: $40.86.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $40.86 (below our primary estimate by 32%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples