SNYNF
Sanofi
$81.65
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.6% below fair value
You pay
$81.65
Bear
$86.00
Fair
$100.34
Bull
$114.67
Bear
$86.00
+5.3%
$7.17 × 12x P/E
Fair
$100.34
+22.9%
$7.17 × 14x P/E
Bull
$114.67
+40.4%
$7.17 × 16x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
14.0x
7.17$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.4x
Summary
Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.17, the base-case value is $100.34 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 253% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1198 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples