SNYNF
Sanofi
$89.16
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 31.9% below fair value
You pay
$89.16
Bear
$112.15
Fair
$130.84
Bull
$149.53
Bear
$112.15
+25.8%
$9.35 × 12x P/E
Fair
$130.84
+46.7%
$9.35 × 14x P/E
Bull
$149.53
+67.7%
$9.35 × 16x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.5x
Summary
Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $9.35, the base-case value is $130.84 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 248% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1389 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples