SNY
Sanofi
$42.48
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.4% below fair value
You pay
$42.48
Bear
$44.11
Fair
$51.46
Bull
$58.81
Bear
$44.11
+3.8%
$3.68 × 12x P/E
Fair
$51.46
+21.1%
$3.68 × 14x P/E
Bull
$58.81
+38.4%
$3.68 × 16x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
14.0x
3.68$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (27 analysts)
$49.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Summary
Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.68, the base-case value is $51.46 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 233% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1486 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples